Poll: I-2124 Under 50% Needed To Pass

A new poll commissioned by the No on I-2124 campaign shows the initiative to eliminate Washington’s long-term care insurance program is under water, sinking far below the 50% needed to pass. 

The survey of 600 likely voters conducted July 10-14 on the actual ballot language and legally required fiscal impact statement found support for the measure is far below the 50% needed to pass, with just 42% saying they would vote yes.  Conventional wisdom is that ballot initiatives need to start at 60% or above because voters, particularly when they are confused, will vote no.

Other polls on I-2124 have not included the legally required Public Investment Information Disclosure or PIID. Still other surveys tested initiative concepts, not the actual language voters will read when filling out their ballots this fall. Below is the actual language voters will read:

I-2124 Ballot Title Language As of 7-18-24

Recent polling consistently shows when voters see the actual ballot title and costly impacts of eliminating billions in long term care payments for elderly, disabled and seriously ill people, they will reject I-2124.

Surveying voters with fictional concept language, and without the legally required fiscal impact statement, will generate skewed results. It’s important to remember that voters tend to be skeptical of ballot measures. Conventional wisdom says initiatives should start at 60% approval in polling, because voters, especially when they are undecided or confused, will default to a no vote.